Green 13 signs on to letter to International Energy Agency on 1.5 degrees scenario

Green 13 has just added its signature to the following letter to the IEA on the 1.5 degrees scenario:

Letter text:

*Modelling for climate success*

The International Energy Agency’s World Energy Outlook (WEO) is an important and influential publication of global energy supply and demand projections and a critical source of analysis on the global energy sector. Each new publication of WEO is a vital tool to help governments, industry and the public to base their decisions on the best available evidence.

Over the years, the scope of WEO has been responsive to many important changes in the energy landscape, such as important efforts to stimulate the ongoing transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy. Its analyses have provided insights that have helped to improve policy, steer investment more efficiently and increase understanding of these trends.

In 2009, the IEA responded to the growing international consensus around a 2°C climate limit by making the 450 Scenario one of its three core cases, setting out an energy pathway consistent with the goal of limiting the global increase in temperature to 2°C. While this scenario was a useful first step in charting low-carbon future, by aiming only for a 50-50 chance of staying within the limit, it falls well short of providing insight into what will be required to have a good chance at achieving a safe climate pathway in future.

Furthermore, the policy environment has changed again, reflecting the latest climate science. As was recognized by world leaders at COP21 in Paris last year, 2°C can no longer be considered a safe limit.

That is why we are writing to you today to urgently call for the inclusion of a robust 1.5 degree C scenario in the 2016 WEO publication. Around the world, governments and industry are continuing to make decisions which ignore the realities of the climate crisis. We cannot meet our targets if we do not plan to do so. Therefore, we urge you to upgrade your 450 ppm energy scenario to a 1.5 degree C scenario and based on a rapid scale up to 100% renewables and strong energy efficiency and conservation measures and policies.

The IEA has rightly committed to responding to the successful adoption of the Paris Agreement in its work. Accordingly, we welcome IEA’s promise to include an in-depth feature on renewable energy in WEO this fall. However, we see no way forward to meet the vital goal of the Paris Agreement to aim to limit the increase in global temperatures to 1.5°C, without a clear understanding of the supply and demand implications for the global energy sector. We are late in our action to reach this goal. We cannot wait until the next WEO, or for the 2018 IPCC study to be completed.

The IEA has the expertise and the credibility to contribute to this understanding. We stand ready to support and assist you in any way possible to make the inclusion of a 1.5 scenario a reality.


Green 13 et al.